Social platforms are locked in a constant battle to attract our eyeballs. Today, Twitter and upstart Threads are duking it out to capture more of our attention. I decided to dig into the numbers and inner workings behind these apps using my background in artificial intelligence and machine learning. Here’s what I discovered about their user base fight from an AI insider’s view…
First, let’s level-set on where Twitter stands today.
As of July 2023, Twitter boasts over 353 million monetizable daily active users. That‘s an important metric — it tracks authenticated users who can view ads.
Twitter has managed to expand these valuable daily visitors by 30% year-over-year, no easy feat given its already substantial scale.
Meanwhile, Twitter’s total user base clocks in at a staggering 330 million monthly active users (MAUs). To put that in perspective, if Twitter were a country, it would be the 4th most populous worldwide!
Here’s a snapshot of how Twitter’s now over 330 million MAUs breaks down percentage-wise across geographic regions:
Twitter’s user base skew highlights both its core strategic markets today (U.S.) along with huge runway still ahead to penetrate markets like Asia Pacific and Latin America.
Now let’s examine Threads’ astonishing growth.
Mapping Threads’ Hockey Stick Growth Against Social Media History
Threads has captured lightning in a bottle with its viral user adoption.
Within 24 hours of launch, Threads saw over 30 million signups — a feat unmatched in social media history. Then 48 hours in, the registered user tally crossed 80+ million and kept accelerating.
To fully grasp the velocity, take a look at this chart comparing the first 48 hour user sign-up pace across major social platforms in their infancy:
As you can see, no other social phenomena has come close to Threads’ adoption pace out of the gates. The chart highlights a few key points:
Lightning Growth Speed: Threads became the fastest growing app in history almost instantly.
Network Effects Fueling Momentum: Each new user threads the network effects flywheel for attracting the next wave of signups.
Viral Loop Built In: Threads brilliance was building in triggers for easy organic sharing and visibility to pour gasoline on word-of-mouth growth.
But can Threads turn hype into sustainable loyalty? That’s the big question…
From Downloads to Addicts: Nurturing Authentic Engagement
While download velocity offers valuable signals around interest and buzz, fostering authentic community interaction is the ultimate measuring stick for social apps over the long haul.
Here Twitter has proven mastery thanks to smart AI-driven features. As one example…
Twitter leans heavily on machine learning algorithms to connect people with content and accounts most likely to interest them. This reduces inactive users and boosts retention by serving users tweet suggestions aligned to their taste.
Threads currently lacks robust personalization technology in its app. But with viral user data accumulating rapidly, Threads has hugely valuable raw material to feed advanced neural network recommender engines.
My prediction is Threads will need to quickly build ML capabilities leveraging interaction signals to match Twitter‘s stickiness or it risks losing fickle users. Reports show over 70% of users abandon apps after just two weeks according to Mixpanel data.
Delivering authentic community connections could be the key for Threads to foster habit-forming engagement.
Comparing Userbases: A More Nuanced View
Earlier I cited figures comparing Twitter’s over 330 million MAUs to Threads’ reported 100+ million registered users.
But taking a closer look, it‘s not quite an apples to apples comparison.
The MAU metric tracks uniquely active accounts over a 28 day period. Meanwhile, registered user tallies for Threads likely contain more duplication from viral onboarding. Many probably signed up, posted once, and faded away.
Here are some key points of nuance around contrasting the user bases:
Twitter‘s MAU Count Signals Depth: Monthly visitors show more real 365-day user commitment rather than point-in-time signups.
Threads May Purge Inactive Accounts: If Threads removes ghost accounts not used after 30-60 days, its user base could contract significantly.
Twitter Data More Independently Verified: As a public company Twitter reports diligently audited metrics to shareholders quarterly.
My take? These factors point to Twitter likely maintaining the more consistently engaged community day to day.
But with youth appeal and cultural buzz, Threads retains a tremendous growth trajectory if it can activate network effects.
Projecting The User Base Battle’s Next Act
By applying my AI lens, I see three potential acts playing out in the Twitter vs. Threads user base duel:
Act I: Threads’ Meteoritic Early Rise
Threads is capturing lightning momentum fueled by the next big thing hype cycle. This adrenaline rush could carry Threads to 250-300 million registered accounts in its first 12 months post-launch.
Act II: Threads’ Engagement Wall?
The big unknown is whether Threads can retain breakneck growth beyond the initial novelty phase. Once the cultural shine wears off, deep community roots and AI personalization tech may be required to prevent churn.
Act III: Twitter’s Resurgence?
With its network effects momentum slowing, Threads could face a rude awakening. Meanwhile, Twitter holds all the data and infrastructure cards to boost its staying power.
My bet is Act III sees Twitter learning lessons from Threads’ innovations to shore up its foundations. This Twitter resurgence likely allows it to maintain pole position with over 300 million MAUs worldwide.
But this slugfest is still anyone’s game!
Parting Thoughts
While Twitter boasts a mammoth user base today, the fickle nature of social means even Goliaths can stumble in the face of innovation. For Threads to achieve sustained meteoric rise and dethrone Twitter likely requires:
1. Addictive core user experiences unavailable elsewhere
2. ML algorithms to enhance personalization and engagement
3. Building brand loyalty before cultural winds shift
So while Threads mania may fade as quickly as it emerged, lasting user growth can still be forged. Applying AI smarts to boost authentic human connections could prove the key…
What do you think? Can Threads unseat Twitter’s social media supremacy long-term? Let me know if you have any other questions in the comments!
